February 25th, 2022 –

If one has studied Russian History, you will discover a long line of Czars and bad guys and bad gals starting with Ivan the Terrible and passing on to Peter the Great, Catherine the Great & Stalin. And if one looks at what these different people did, one fact seems to stand out…they all increased the size of the Russian empire and they all were concerned with having ample land surrounding their empire. One could say that having satellite countries is built into the DNA of Russia.

Enter Vlad the Bad. Vladimir has been with us for a while, first as a KGB agent, later as Premier and President of Russia. In truth, Vlad the Bad is just another Czar who has spent a lifetime consolidating power and increasing the size of the Empire. Czar Vlad’s view may be a little short-sighted when compared to his predecessors: he looks back to the glory days of the Soviet Union and seemingly considers that the apogee of Russia. No doubt, earlier Czars and Czarinas would disagree with him on that point. They might think that the former Communist Empire was a step down in elegance, glory and achievements of previous Czars and Czarinas.

This same view may be harbored by the Russian people themselves, but no matter, you go to war with Czar you have, not Czar you wish you had.

For those of you not familiar with Russian History it should also be noted the Ukraine, Kyiv and the Dnieper River have long played major roles in the history of Russia. So, if you are thinking that Vlad the Bad is the first Russian to think that the Ukraine was a part of Russia, you would be wrong. The Ukraine has been thought by Russians to be a part of Russia for over a 1,000 years. For as long as there has been a Russian Empire and an area known as the Ukraine, Russians have thought that the Ukraine is Russian.

This is not say that the people living in the Ukraine have the same view of history. Like Jerusalem, the history of the Ukraine is far more complicated. True, the Ukraine was an original part of Russia dating back to the 9th century, but after that it was under various masters. The days that Vlad the Bad fondly remembers was when the ”Iron Curtain” had descended and the Ukraine was fully under the control of Mother Russia. First and foremost, the people living in Ukraine did not necessarily have the same fond memories of the Good Old Days of the Cold War. Perhaps, they remembered some shortages in supermarkets or in nylons for the ladies.

But time and history move on and The Wall did fall and the former satellite countries of the Soviet Union became more interested in enjoying their lives and in having some say in their destiny. And other things were happening in the world. The EU was founded in 1993 and like any growing organization they sought new members to augment their numbers. Now it must said that that there was a guy named George Kennan who formulated for the United States a theory of containment for the Soviet Union. George quite correctly said that the Soviet Union would never be happy unless it had its satellite countries. And shortly before George died, he said that European and Western diplomats had screwed up everything and not understood Russia’s need for satellite countries and surely trouble would come from that.

Certainly, George was right about that but as with all things that have happened it must be remembered that they are in the past and the past is the past. So, pushing forward to the present moment, you can say there may be some reasons why Vlad the Bad is being bad and that it all could be explained as just being in Czar Vlad’s DNA. So this is the moment we are at. The U.S. and Europe can say there is no justification for Putin’s ”War of Choice” and Putin can simply say the answer is history itself and I need my Ukraine.

So where will all this go? Nobody can know. Calmer and more mature and perhaps, more naive minds can hope for a diplomatic settlement. More realistic folks can hope that the invasion is swift and clean and not too many people are murdered. More pessimistic folks can hope we avoid World War III. Still more pessimistic folks might just say things come in 3s.