What a complicated guy Czar Vlad has turned out to be. Bad to the bone for sure, his latest activities, aka The Invasion of the Ukraine, makes one wonder what makes this guy tick? How will that event unfold. Where will the war in Europe go? Nobody knows for sure.

As to the true identity and character of Vladimir Putin, that also is a mystery.

BCE (aka Buffalo Chip Express) has several theories:

The Reincarnation of Rasputin: this is a pretty good theory. Let’s start with the hard fact that the name Putin shares 5 letters with the name Rasputin – that cannot be a coincidence! And those 5 letters are in the exact same order. This theory becomes even stronger when you consider that Rasputin single handedly screwed up the 300 year rule of the Romanov Dynasty and helped bring on the Russian Revolution. It presently looks like Vlad the Bad is on a similar trajectory. This theory looses some of its momentum when you consider that Rasputin was a monk given to seducing Princesses in the Court of the Czar and drinking vodka until senseless. That part, however, does not seem to fit the MO (modus operandi) of Vlad the Bad.

Yes, Vlad the Bad is bad, but he is not known to have been a monk, to seduce Russian princesses or to drink himself senseless. So perhaps, this theory is not as solid as it might be. Of course, it could be that Vlad the Bad has a secret life of seducing the great grand daughters of former Russian princesses and is a closet drinker. If so, that is a well-kept secret within the high walls of the Kremlin.

So let’s move on to the next possible theory –

Ivan the Terrible Reborn: This theory has some legs. Vlad the Bad does share characteristics that might make Ivan the Terrible jealous. The Invasion of Ukraine is certainly something that Ivan the Terrible would do, although Ivan would no doubt go along to the Ukraine himself (and not sit back in Moscow like Vlad the Bad), bringing one or two of his sons that he had not yet killed. They would no doubt take part in torturing and raping as many citizens of the Ukraine as they could come across. And Czar Putin’s previous forays into Georgia and the Crimea would win high marks with Ivan because that the kind of guy he was – he liked land grabs. Still, this theory gets a little shaky when we study the portraits of Ivan the Terrible and Vlad the Bad.

Ivan the Terrible was probably pretty terrible when it came to grooming whereas Vlad the Bad is a neat, well-dressed and buttoned up autocrat. Appearances seem to be important for Vlad the Bad whereas not so much for Ivan the Terrible.

This brings us to last possible explanation –

Napoleon in Reverse: If the Ivan the Terrible comparison has some legs, BCE thinks Napoleon in Reverse is a wrap. Let’s start with the obvious – both guys are snappy dressers and both guys are short dudes – Bonaparte was 5’ 6”, Vlad was 5’ 7”. Both seemed to have a chip on their shoulder and both had a bent towards megalomania. Let’s bring the case home: Napoleon invaded Russia and had to retreat when things did not work out. Vlad the Bad invaded the Ukraine and may have to retreat if things do not work out.

That may not seem like a direct comparison but that depends on the outcome of The Invasion of Ukraine. If Vlad the Bad is forced to retreat and cut a less than perfect deal, as BCE suspects, then truly, Vlad the Bad will be Napoleon in Reverse.

Of course, quite the opposite could occur if Vlad the Bad decides to go West.

Pundits, economists, Financial Broadcasters, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News and various finance publications all agree – markets are the true barometer of the health of our economy and the font of all wisdom. For this reason, it is instructive to review the recent path of various market moves to see what truths they reveal.

For 5 days leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, markets trembled with stocks declining everyday. Thereafter, the market both soared and repeatedly sank. By the first week in March, the markets were generally down and as the days passed, the markets went down more. There was a miracle upturn in the beginning of the second week of March, but the course of the market was still described by some market observers as “choppy”.

The invasion of Ukraine proved to be far more extensive then originally thought. Czar Putin moved his forces into Ukraine from four different directions, but so far they have they have not moved much from their original entry points. To the surprise of many, the Ukrainians defended themselves in heroic and surprising ways and after almost two weeks, while the Russians had made advances in the South of Ukraine, they still had not captured any large Ukrainian city.

The markets adjusted dramatically to the ups and downs of the war by dramatically going up and down on various days with the hopes of a quick solution early in the invasion fading and the reality of a drawn out invasion rising as the first 15 days passed. The reasoning of markets was that an invasion of Ukraine might be bad for the markets and, maybe even, for the economic health of the world economy. No doubt it would raise the price of gas and this would further raise prices in the U.S. Who knows, the FED may have to raise interest faster or slower.

To the surprise of many, Ukraine has withstood the initial attacks of the Russians and has inflicted casualties on Russians and damage to Russian tanks, planes and helicopters. This slowed the Russian invasion and troop movements became bogged down in several parts of the country. It would seem the Ukrainians were better prepared and better armed than originally thought. At the same time, the U.S., the UK. and the EU instituted some sanctions. And as the days passed they issued more sanctions almost every day.

While NATO and U.S. were unwilling to either establish a “no fly zone” or commit troops in the Ukraine, they eagerly sent in weapons and missiles and rocket launchers from surrounding countries. So, not only did the Ukrainians fight far more ferociously than the Russians had planned, it turned out that the Ukrainians were able to get access to lots of weapons.

And while the Russians and Ukrainians were warring and the U.S., EU and UK were sanctioning, the price of oil rose to over $100.

On the second day of the invasion, word came that Czar Vlad might entertain talks with the Ukrainians. Of course, there were a couple minor conditions: The Ukrainian military would have to surrender. Ukraine would have to become “de-militarized and de-nazified”. The price of oil fell a bit and the markets soared on this news.

Peace talks took place and nothing happened and the markets took a breather and considered the situation. And then the Russian invasion resumed. To the surprise of even more analysts, the Russian attacks were met with continued fierce resistance from the Ukrainians. In the meantime, the U.S., the UK and the EU instituted more sanctions and sent in more weapons.

The Russians shifted military techniques doubling down on bombing and shelling and indiscriminate murder of civilians and destruction of buildings, schools, hospitals, towns and cities. The markets continued on their jagged course, up a day or two and then down for several days in a row. And as the chart above indicates, the general direction drift of markets were down, while the general direction of the price of oil was up.

Within the markets, the pundits deliberated the daily happenings and considered the most important issues of each day…do we buy on the dips, will the S&P break 5,000 by year end, will their be a cost increase in Billionaire homes in The Hamptons this summer, will the war extend to NATO, could World War III affect stock option trades?

So many questions from the purveyors of wisdom.